Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 11.217676 12.859602 14.631255 16.681603 18.985627 21.491165 24.418481
2025-05-11 8.599119 10.773125 13.304921 16.457615 20.263584 24.694347 30.226460
2025-05-18 7.335222 9.729969 12.657982 16.476054 21.294932 27.144003 34.746453
2025-05-25 6.438998 8.989813 12.246849 16.670129 22.473883 29.777260 39.602754
2025-06-01 5.679841 8.297381 11.769565 16.655164 23.284347 31.888599 43.808729
2025-06-08 5.012013 7.638287 11.247770 16.495294 23.837621 33.639126 47.582127
2025-06-15 4.552217 7.210387 10.983083 16.631723 24.755332 35.873951 52.064750
2025-06-22 4.260875 6.990680 10.979870 17.113435 26.154348 38.806976 57.617671
2025-06-29 3.831801 6.514997 10.553349 16.930129 26.563112 40.345108 61.258421
2025-07-06 3.306430 5.833367 9.753910 16.116017 25.970178 40.387324 62.720502
2025-07-13 3.123570 5.683462 9.756794 16.517739 27.207146 43.134888 68.226189
2025-07-20 2.940448 5.513633 9.709836 16.828252 28.307413 45.713822 73.577268
2025-07-27 2.684493 5.200347 9.413107 16.728768 28.777484 47.390430 77.694845
2025-08-03 2.428577 4.862037 9.046837 16.486124 28.998494 48.687220 81.284384
2025-08-10 2.246658 4.638013 8.853395 16.510886 29.641264 50.653798 85.977741
2025-08-17 2.108850 4.482063 8.764347 16.703116 30.563831 53.096347 91.516148
2025-08-24 1.953229 4.276036 8.567781 16.688893 31.127375 54.970825 96.204272
2025-08-31 1.792230 4.042920 8.301879 16.528468 31.421761 56.403785 100.215744
2025-09-07 1.684954 3.907214 8.205437 16.665236 32.234879 58.723699 105.769354
2025-09-14 1.628357 3.870882 8.294304 17.147783 33.682334 62.168081 113.329338
2025-09-21 1.498722 3.666449 8.040144 16.964158 33.911657 63.529164 117.402938
2025-09-28 1.313457 3.321120 7.478245 16.148573 32.930131 62.735652 117.733344
2025-10-05 1.268143 3.284316 7.538028 16.551022 34.234979 66.008006 125.237095